Are We in a Recession, or Not?

A poll released by CNN shows that a majority of Americans know we’re in dire straits right now when it comes to the economy, but that they’re optimistic about next year.

Over three quarters of CNN’s respondent’s believe the economy is poor or very poor, and the obvious culprits are the housing market, gas prices (which just hit an average over $4.00), and the credit crisis that’s hit Wall Street.

And now the job market is posting highs–not in jobs, mind you, but in unemployment figures. Yet I still hear plenty of people saying that we’re not in a recession yet. Now, I don’t know about you, but to me it sounds like we’re in a recession. We’ve had the largest jump in the unemployment rate in over 20 years (22 to be more exact), yet you still can read about economists claiming that we’re not yet in a recession (not sure what they’re drinking or where they’re living, but apparently it has something to do with the exact calculations).

But not to sound like a pessimist, a report came out today as well about housing, and in particular that pending home sales had risen 6.3%–a high since October but down 13% from last year.

Buyers (of which I’m one, although I haven’t pulled the trigger yet), seem to be enjoying the ability to negotiate home prices that have already dropped substantially around the country. Good for some, bad for others. Personally, I’m waiting. I’m playing it like I might play the stock market–wait and see how low we go, don’t make any hasty moves, and if the prices start rising and I buy on the upswing, so be it. As long as I don’t buy and see price drops in the double-digits, I won’t pull too much of my hair out.

But back to the recession question. Are we in a recession? Here’s Wikipedia’s definition:
In macroeconomics, a recession is generally associated with a decline in a country’s real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth. According to one widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, there are differing definitions: In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee ultimately decides whether the economy has fallen into a recession. The NBER does not use any specific methodology for determining the start and end dates of a recession - instead it looks at a variety of economic indicators over various time periods and determines whether to declare that the economy is in a recession based on those data.

You tell me.